Vericast: Pizza Restaurant Preference Dips, Growing Frozen Pizza Demand

High-food prices are pushing pizza lovers to the frozen aisle. 

A new report from Vericast found that 40% of consumers now have no preference when choosing a pizza restaurant, and due to inflation, 13% of recent pizza restaurant guests are opting for frozen or non-restaurant pizza.

Vericast’s 2023 Restaurant TrendWatch Report found that 43% of recent pizza restaurant guests purchased frozen pizza in a typical week. Frozen pizza sales at grocery stores were up 11% year-over-year in 2022, an increase of roughly $322 million, providing a growing opportunity for retailers to expand private label offerings in the segment. 

"The pizza battle is on, and grocery stores are winning," said Dana Baggett, client strategy director, Restaurant Division at Vericast. "Consumers are shifting to at-home pizza, resulting in the big four pizza players losing 3% share of wallet compared to same time last year, according to Numerator. If they convert just 5% of their guests who purchase frozen pizza each month, they could earn roughly $500M collectively. Brands who deliver targeted offers across digital and print channels will win loyalty and business."

Vericast found that over the past two years, retailers have increased their frozen pizza brand promotions 214% in an attempt to attract customers. However, 41% of those surveyed in the report said that with food prices rising at grocery stores, it is not necessarily cheaper to eat at home. Half (50%) of those surveyed said coupons and discounts help them choose between restaurants.

"Based on sales and traffic numbers, some believe the big four pizza brands (Dominos, Pizza Hut, Papa John's and Little Caesars) are consumers' first pick, but when we dig a little deeper, we found that the top choice is actually 'no preference,'" said Baggett. "This lack of preference and loyalty means consumers can be swayed to change brands with incentives."

Vericast is a data partner to 170 pizza companies, including all the top 10 brands in America.