NRF: Import Levels Continue to Soften
Import cargo volume at the nation’s major ports during the year’s first half is expected to be 22% lower than the same time period last year, according to a new report from the National Retail Federation (NRF).
The Global Tracker Report from NRF and Hackett Associates show U.S. ports in April handled 1.78 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units– one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in April, the latest month for which final numbers are available. While that figure was up 9.6% from March it was down 21.3% year-over-year.
Ports have not yet reported May numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.84 million TEU, down 23% year-over-year. June is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, down 15.3% from the same month last year. That would bring the first half of 2023 to 10.5 million TEU, down 22.3% from the first half of 2022.
“Cargo volume is lower than last year but retailers are entering the busiest shipping season of the year bringing in holiday merchandise,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
July is forecast at 1.99 million TEU, down 8.8% year-over-year; August at 2.02 million TEU, down 10.5%; September at 1.95 million TEU, down 4%, and October also at 1.95 million TEU, down 2.7%.
Global Port Tracker has not yet forecast the full year, but the third quarter is expected to total 5.97 million TEU, down 7.9% from the same time last year, and the first nine months of the year should total 16.48 million TEU, down 17.6% year-over-year. Imports for all of 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
NRF and is raising concerns over labor disruptions at the ports and is encouraging federal officials to intercede to avoid a major work stoppage.
The last thing retailers and other shippers need is ongoing disruption at the ports,” said Gold. “If labor and management can’t reach an agreement and operate smoothly and efficiently, retailers will have no choice but to continue to take their cargo to East Coast and Gulf Coast gateways. We continue to urge the administration to step in and help the parties reach an agreement and end the disruptions so operations can return to normal.”
NRF has issued a statement calling on the Biden administration to intervene following reports of disruptions at terminals at the Ports of Oakland and Long Beach. The disruptions have come as the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Association have failed to reach a new labor agreement after more than a year of negotiations.
“Economists and shipping lines increasingly wonder why the decline in container import demand is so much at odds with continuous growth in consumer demand,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said, noting that spending has been bolstered by strong employment numbers and increases in personal income. “Import container shipments have returned the pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019 and appear likely to stay there for a while.”