NRF Forecasts Record Halloween Sales
Higher prices will have little effect on Halloween celebrations this year, as the National Retail Federation (NRF) is forecasting record sales growth for the fall holiday.
In its annual consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, the NRF predicts sales of $13.1 billion this year, up from $11.6 billion in 2024.
Most Halloween shoppers (79%) anticipate prices will be higher this year, specifically because of tariffs. Despite these reservations, nearly three-quarters of consumers (73%) plan to celebrate the holiday, in line with last year’s 72%.
Top holiday activities include handing out candy (66%), dressing up in costume (51%), and decorating their home or yard (51%). Compared with last year, more people also plan to carve a pumpkin (46%), throw or attend a party (32%), visit a haunted house (24%,) or dress up their pets (23%).
“Even with concerns about price increases due to tariffs, Halloween continues to resonate with consumers of all ages,” said Katherine Cullen, vice president of Industry and Consumer Insights with the National Retail Federation. “Whether it’s dressing in costume or carving a pumpkin, more consumers plan to take part in Halloween activities and traditions. Retailers are prepared to ensure the shopping experience is a treat for consumers this Halloween season.”
Candy continues to be the most popular purchase, with total spending expected to reach $3.9 billion. Across other categories, 71% plan to purchase costumes, and spending is expected to reach $4.3 billion. Another 78% plan to purchase decorations, up from 75% last year, and will spend an estimated $4.2 billion in total. And 38% plan to purchase greeting cards, an increase from 2024’s 33%, with total spending estimated at $0.7 billion.
Per-person spending has reached a record high of $114.45, nearly $11 more than last year and up from the previous record of $108.24 in 2023.
Like last year, consumers continue to gravitate toward early shopping. Nearly half of consumers (49%) began shopping in September or earlier, a slight increase from 47% the year prior. Leading reasons consumers are shopping early are that they are looking forward to fall (44%), Halloween is one of their favorite holidays (37%), they do not want to miss out on desired items (33%, and they want to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping (33%).
Discount stores (42%) remain the top destination to buy Halloween items, followed by specialty Halloween/costume stores (31%) and online (31%). Discount stores saw a 5% increase in shoppers this year, up from 37% in 2024.
“For consumers looking to balance their budgets, strategies such as buying early to spread out purchases or shopping at discount stores are just some ways they are being mindful of costs,” said Phil Rist, executive vice president of Strategy with Prosper. “Despite these budget considerations, consumers are committed to prioritizing Halloween celebrations to create special memories with their loved ones.”
The leading sources of Halloween inspiration continue to be online searches (37%), within a retail store or costume shop (27%) and friends and family (21%).
The survey asked 8,045 consumers about their Halloween shopping plans. It was conducted from Sept. 2-9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.
