Tariffs Expected To Dampen Port Traffic For The Rest Of 2025
The flow of goods at major U.S. ports is expected to steadily decline throughout the rest of the year, with tariffs the main culprit for the slowdown, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Following July, when retailers made a last-minute push to import products ahead of new tariffs in August, the NRF is forecasting decreases through the fall and into the holiday season.
“Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”
Jonathan Gold, vice president for Supply Chain and Customs policy for the NRF, noted that sectoral tariffs are having a negative impact on a wider scope of products.
“Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success,” he said. “These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”
While “reciprocal” tariffs on a number of countries took effect in early August, a federal appeals court later ruled against President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the tariffs but left them in place while the ruling is under appeal to the Supreme Court.
Meanwhile, Trump delayed an increase in tariffs on China by 90 days to Nov. 10 so trade negotiations could continue. Trump also announced an additional 25% tariff on India that took effect near the end of August, bringing the additional tariff rate to 50%.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.36 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in July, although numbers for New York/New Jersey, Port Everglades and Miami were estimated because they have not yet reported their data. That was up 20.1% from June as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariffs set to take effect in August, and up 1.8% year-over-year. It would be the second-busiest month on record, topped only by 2.4 million TEU in May 2022.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for August, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.28 million TEU, down 1.7% year-over-year but higher than the 2.2 million TEU expected before the postponement of China tariffs and the new tariff on India.
September is forecast at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% year-over-year; October at 1.95 million TEU, down 13.2%; and November at 1.74 million TEU, down 19.7%. December is forecast at 1.7 million TEU, down 20.1% year-over-year for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023. January 2026 is forecast at 1.8 million TEU, down 19.1% year-over-year.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year-over-year. The full year is forecast at 24.7 million TEU, down 3.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
