July Retail Sales Rebound

Consumers were out shopping in July ahead of the latest round of tariffs as retail spending grew in the year’s seventh month, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor. 

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 1.45% seasonally adjusted month-over-month and up 5.89% unadjusted year-over-year in July, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 0.33% and an increase of 3.19% year-over-year in June.

Total sales were up 4.83% year-over-year for the first seven months of the year, and core sales were up 5.07%.

“Consumer spending increased in July, driven by successful summer sales events held by many retailers and shoppers continuing to pull purchases forward ahead of tariffs,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation. “Month-over-month gains were sizable against a weaker-than-normal June. We may be seeing growing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods, particularly non-durables. Even with weaker job growth than many expected, consumers still have the ability to spend on household priorities as wages are growing above the rate of inflation.”

July sales were up in all but one out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by digital products, sporting goods stores, and general merchandise stores, and were also up in all but one category on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 1.35% month-over-month, seasonally adjusted, and up 25.01% unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores were up 2.36% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 9.99% year-over-year unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were up 2.04% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 6.94% year-over-year unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were up 1.75% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 6.73% year-over-year unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.43% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 5.42% year-over-year unadjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were up 1.69% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 4.44% year-over-year unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.51% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 2.11% year-over-year unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.98% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 1.53% year-over-year unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were up 1.32% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 4.11% year-over-year unadjusted.