Tariffs Expected To Slow U.S. Imports
The rise in tariffs is expected to hurt U.S. port traffic for the remainder of 2025, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.96 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in June, the latest month for which final data is available. That was up 0.7% from May but down 8.4% year-over-year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for July, but Global Port Tracker projects that the month surged to 2.3 million TEU as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of August’s tariffs. That would be the highest number in a year, up 17.3% from June and down just 0.5% year-over-year.
August is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, down 5% year-over-year, and September at 1.83 million TEU, down 19.5% year-over-year. October is forecast at 1.82 million TEU, down 18.9% year-over-year; and November at 1.71 million TEU, down 21.1% for the lowest total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023. December is forecast at 1.72 million TEU, down 19.3% year-over-year.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year-over-year. The volume forecast for the remainder of the year would bring 2025 to a total of 24.1 million TEU, down 5.6% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy with the NRF. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses, especially, are grappling with the ability to stay in business. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment, and a slower economy.”
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said the on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy are causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters, and consumers.
“Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect,” he said. “This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter-tariffs are applied.”
