Retail Sales Stay Strong Through The First Half Of Holiday Season

Month-over-month retail sales dipped in November, but year-over-year sales were up as the holiday shopping season got off to a strong start, according to figures from the National Retail Federation (NRF).

The U.S. Census Bureau said overall retail sales in November were down 0.6% from October but up 6.5% when compared to November of 2021. That compares with increases of 1.3% month-over-month and 8.3% year-over-year in October, which saw a boost from earlier-than-usual holiday shopping driven by worries that inflation will continue to increase prices.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – showed November was down 0.4% from October but up 5.6% unadjusted year-over-year. In October, sales were up 0.6% month-over-month and up 6.2% year-over-year. 

“Consumers continued to spend on household priorities and holiday gifts for loved ones this November despite continued inflation and rising interest rates,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the NRF. “Holiday shoppers are demonstrating resilience, and retailers are providing great products and experiences at the right price levels to help stretch household budgets. Consumers have been shifting back to in-store shopping for a more traditional holiday shopping experience, and we expect record participation for this year’s Super Saturday shopping weekend.”

“This was the first leg of the official holiday season and had a large hurdle to overcome with monthly comparisons because of early shopping in October, but the consumer remains surprisingly resilient,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist with the NRF. “The healthy year-over-year comparison is more important and clearly shows that the economy is not in a recession. Spending is on track to meet our expectations for a solid holiday season.”

November accounts for the first half of the holiday season, which NRF defines as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and the results are on track with NRF’s forecast that 2022 holiday sales will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021. Even the low end of NRF’s forecast of between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion in holiday sales would top last year’s record of $889.3 billion. 

• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 8.8% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Online and other non-store sales were down 0.9% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 7.7% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Health and personal care stores were up 0.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 4.3% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Building materials and garden supply stores were down 2.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 3.7% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Sporting goods stores were down 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 3.5% unadjusted year-over-year.
• General merchandise stores were down 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 3.2% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 1.7% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 2.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 3.3% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 1.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 5.6% unadjusted year-over-year.