Deloitte Sees Slower Holiday Sales Growth for 2025 Season
With the retail world turning its attention to the fourth quarter and the all-important holiday season, Deloitte is forecasting holiday sales growth below that of last year.
For the upcoming season, the financial services firm is predicting retail sales growth of between 2.9% and 3.4% for the November through January timeframe. In 2024, holiday retail sales grew 4.2%.
E-commerce sales are expected to grow between 7% and 9% year over year during the holidays.
“We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season,” said Akrur Barua, economist with Deloitte Insights. “Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and e-commerce sales. Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending. While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season.”
Natalie Martini, vice chair with Deloitte and its U.S. retail and consumer products leader, expects the holiday season to demonstrate the resilience of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty.
“Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power,” she said. "Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses."
