Consumers Maintaining Thanksgiving Traditions Despite Higher Prices

An overwhelming majority of Americans said they will celebrate Thanksgiving as normal and continue their usual holiday traditions in spite of facing higher prices at their favorite retailers, according to a new report from Circana.

New data in Circana’s Thanksgiving Tracker revealed that 79% of consumers will celebrate Thanksgiving in “the usual way” with about one-third of those celebrating the traditional November holiday expecting to pay more for groceries, but will still purchase the same amount of food as previous years.

The overall Thanksgiving basket is expected to cost shoppers an additional 1.7% this year when compared to 2022, but a whopping 27.4% more than 2019. In a year-over-year comparison (2023 vs 2022), the main entree will cost 1.1% less and the price of pies are down a modest 0.2%. Shoppers will see increased costs for sides (3.6%), beverages (5.4%) and baking items (2.2%).

“Manufacturers and retailers have the opportunity to help consumers, many of whom continue to buy on deal, and celebrate Thanksgiving as they always have by understanding their specific needs and targeting promotions effectively,” said Joan Driggs, vice president, Content and Thought Leadership, Circana. “There is also significant value in gaining a complete view of consumers and their purchasing strategies, such as plans to source dishes from both home and retail as well as restaurant and foodservice.”

While 34% of all consumers surveyed said they would be looking for deals, that number jumps to 44% for shoppers who fall in the Gen Z/Younger Millennials segment. 

In 2022, Thanksgiving provided a $2.8 billion sales lift when compared to the average week, the second largest food holiday of the year, surpassed only by the Christmas sales lift of $6.2 billion. Additional trends that occurred in 2022 that Circana expects to continue this year include:

• 79% of the total four-week Thanksgiving sales uplift took place in the week prior to and the week of Thanksgiving 
• The Thanksgiving basket of 30 categories drove $2.1 billion or 75% of the sales uplift, despite representing only 9% of sales for those weeks
• The percent of sales sold on promotion for last year’s Thanksgiving basket almost doubled to 50%, but the average depth of discount was similar to the rest of the year
• 10% of Thanksgiving meal occasions had an item sourced from a restaurant or foodservice