Analysts predict a more popular Prime Day

Dan Ochwat
Executive Editor
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Some recent surveys are expecting a busy Prime Day event — the annual Amazon blowout is running Oct. 13-14 and will feature its private brands.

Traditionally, the event is held in July, but due to the pandemic, Amazon moved it to this fall slot that some research houses predict could spawn a bigger boom in sales as it leads into holiday shopping.

New York-based Kantar, for one, said 56% of the 3,000 shoppers it surveyed, both Prime members and non-members, plan to spend as much as last year or more on this year’s event, while 28% reported they expect to spend more on Prime Day this year than last year. 

Looking specifically at types of products, London-based data company Measure Protocol found that a quarter of shoppers it surveyed will be buying Amazon Basics or Amazon Essentials private brand items during Prime Day.

The company surveyed 2,700 consumers and the top product categories were electronics (54%), home goods (32%), Amazon Basics/Essentials (25%) and beauty (20%).

Kantar's research found that 81% of Prime users surveyed said they would be likely to take advantage of the sales event, compared with 39% of non-members, perhaps signaling toward some larger holiday buying. Kantar also found that only 3% of Prime members in the survey said they don’t plan to buy anything, compared to 16% who did not buy anything last year.

Similarly, Port Washington, N.Y.-based NPD Group released a survey that found 57% of consumers plan to do some of their holiday shopping during Prime Day this year, and that was conducted before the dates were announced.

NPD Group and its “Annual Holiday Study” said consumers could get better deals during Prime Day than on Black Friday, which could kick in some earlier holiday shopping.

The analysts said Prime Day was the third-highest-ranked shopping day online last year, behind Cyber Monday and Black Friday, but because of Prime Day’s later release could see it move higher. The study found more than one-third of consumers surveyed think they will find a better deal during Prime Day versus the more traditional Black Friday or Cyber Monday days.

“The pandemic has changed retail, and the delayed timing of Amazon's Prime Days will be making its mark on the 2020 holiday season," said Marshal Cohen, NPD's chief industry advisor, retail. "Consumers are already entering this earlier-than-ever start to the holiday season with a different shopping mindset, and this is retail's chance to emphasize the notion that early is better when making holiday purchases — when it comes to inventory, shipping, and deals."

Not to be outdone, Target, Walmart and other retailers are planning earlier holiday promotions. Target has promotions launching on the same days as Prime Day, Oct. 13 and 14, called Target Deal Days and Walmart’s Big Save event began Oct. 11, which may further contribute to the impact of Prime Days on both holiday spending and retail overall.

Consumers will be watching all of the early deals, and 63% say they are very likely to compare Prime Day promotions with other retailer promotions before making a purchase, said NPD Group, adding that during the July Prime Day event retailers would have competing sales but not on a holiday season stage like this. 

Another differentiator in the 2020 event that NPD Group identified is Amazon's lead-up focus on supporting small businesses. The analysts said 17% of consumers indicated they plan to buy more from smaller, locally owned retailers this holiday season.