Tariff Reductions to Drive Short-Term Import Surge
The 90-day tariff reduction recently imposed by the Trump administration on China is expected to boost imports in the coming weeks, according to a new report from the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Jonathan Gold, vice president of Supply Chain and Customs Policy with the NRF, said retailers resumed importing products from China after the previously announced 145% tariff on the Asian nation was reduced to 30%, and a 90-day pause lasting through Aug. 12 was announced. The higher reciprocal tariffs on other nations have also been paused until July 9 as the administration negotiates with those countries.
"This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season," Gold said. "Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August. We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners in order to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain."
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said projections on May imports show a significant reduction as companies responded to the higher tariff environment.
"However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses," he said. "The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season. If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports."
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker, a report produced by the NRF and Hackett Associates, handled 2.21 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in April, the latest month for which final data is available, and before the impact of the April tariffs was felt. That was up 2.9% from March and up 9.6% year-over-year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for May, when the April tariffs began to have an impact, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.91 million TEU, down 13.4% from April and down 8.1% year-over-year. That would be the first year-over-year decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.87 million TEU in December 2023.
Imports are expected to bounce back in June, although numbers will remain lower than last year. June is forecast at 2.01 million TEU, down 6.2% year-over-year; July at 2.13 million TEU, down 8.1%; and August at 1.98 million TEU, down 14.7%.
Volume is then expected to drop sharply for the remainder of 2025, with large year-over-year declines seen partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes.
September is forecast at 1.78 million TEU, down 21.8% year-over-year; and October is forecast at 1.8 million TEU, down 19.8%.
The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 12.54 million TEU, up 3.7% year-over-year. That’s an improvement over the 12.13 million TEU forecast last month before the tariff pause was announced, but still below the 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7% year-over-year, forecast before the April tariffs announcement.
