Strike Concerns Keep Import Levels High
With concerns over a possible strike at the nation’s major ports, container traffic is expected to remain strong in September at key points of entry, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance covering East and Gulf Coast ports is set to expire on September 30. The ILA has continued to threaten to strike if a new contract is not reached by then. The NRF has renewed its call for both sides to come to an agreement before the contract expires.
“This is a critical time as retailers prepare for the all-important holiday season, and we need every port in the country working at full capacity,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy with the NRF. “Many retailers have brought cargo in early and shifted to alternate ports as a precaution, but it is vital that labor and management at the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports actually sit down at the negotiating table and bargain in good faith for a new contract so we can avoid a disruption of any kind when their contract expires.”
Gold said a strike would be “another blow” to the supply chain as it continues to face challenges, and to the nation’s economy at a time when inflation is cooling and the Fed is poised to lower interest rates.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.32 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in July, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 8.1% from June and up 21% year-over-year for the highest July on record.
Ports have not yet reported August’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.37 million TEU, up 20.9% year-over-year and the highest level since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that in addition to concerns over a possible strike, some retailers are also weighing the decision to bring forward some goods, particularly from China, that could be impacted by rising tariffs following the election.
September is forecast at 2.31 million TEU, up 14% year-over-year; October at 2.08 million TEU, up 1.3%; November at 1.92 million TEU, up 1.6%, and December at 1.89 million TEU, up 0.9%. That would bring 2024 to 24.98 million TEU, up 12.3% from 2023. The first half of 2024 totaled 12.1 million TEU, up 14.8% over the same period in 2023.
If the forecasts prove correct, 2024 will have seen a seven-month stretch of import levels at or above 2 million TEU, the longest since a 19-month stretch through September 2022. January 2025 is forecast at 1.96 million TEU, down 0.3%.
