Retail Sales Continue to Grow In September

Retail sales in September remained strong as consumers continued to shop for items they need in spite of inflationary pressures and an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that overall retail sales in September were unchanged from August but up 8.2% year-over-year. That compared with increases of 0.4% month-over-month and 9.4% year-over-year in August. On a three-month moving average, sales were up 9.2% year-over-year.

The National Retail Federation’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – showed September was up 0.3% from August and up 7.2% unadjusted year-over-year. In August, sales were also up 0.3% month-over-month and were up 8.5% year-over-year.

NRF’s numbers were up 7.6% unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average as of September. Sales were up 7.2% year-over-year for the first nine months of the year, keeping results on track with NRF’s forecast that 2022 retail sales will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021.

“September retail sales confirm that even with rising interest rates, persistent inflation, political uncertainty and volatile global markets, consumers are spending for household priorities,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the NRF. “As we enter the holiday season, shoppers are increasingly seeking deals and discounts to make their dollars stretch, and retailers are already meeting this demand.”

Jack Kleinhenz, the NRF’s chief economist, noted that sales were uneven across retail categories as inflation continues to be the main factor in determining how much shoppers are willing to spend.

“Households are tapping into savings, accessing credit and reducing their savings contributions as they meet higher prices head on,” he said. “Shoppers are looking for bargains and value in the current economic environment and even more so as we head into the holiday season.”

September sales were up in all but one retail category on a yearly basis, led by online sales, building materials stores and grocery stores, and increased in five out of nine categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 11.5% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Building materials and garden supply stores were down 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 9.2% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 6.7% unadjusted year-over-year.
• General merchandise stores were up 0.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 4.8% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Sporting goods stores were down 0.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 4.8% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Health and personal care stores were up 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 4.6% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 4.5% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 1.5% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 8.9% unadjusted year-over-year.