NRF: Import Volumes Slowing Heading Into 2024

Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports has peaked and is expected to slow heading toward the end of the year, according to the monthly Global Tracker Report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Global Port Tracker. 

With consumers concerned about the impact of inflation and high interest rates – particularly for groceries, automobiles and mortgages – discretionary spending growth is slowing and retail cargo imports are expected to decline, said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. Consumer spending grew 1.8% year-over-year in the second quarter rather than the 2.3% originally estimated, and NRF said last month that retail sales for the year could come in at the low end of its forecast of 4%-6% year-over-year growth.

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“We are already seeing this in the operational decisions carriers are making,” Hackett said. “They have slowed down their ships in an attempt to cut capacity without having to take vessels out of service as new, larger ones ordered when demand was higher are delivered. Even so, ships are not sailing fully loaded, and freight rates are declining as a result. That’s a further indication that no cargo growth from current levels is expected on the near-term horizon.”

Jonathan Gold, vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy with the NRF, said cargo volumes for the remainder of the year will not be as high as expected. 

“Retailers stocked up early this year as a safeguard against supply chain labor issues and are well-situated to meet consumer demand,” he said. “Shoppers are spending more than they did last year, but the rate of growth we’ve seen the past couple of years has slowed and retailers are working to strike the right balance of supply and demand.”

Inbound volume at U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker had been forecast to reach 2 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in August and stay at that level through October. That would have been the first time the 2 million TEU mark has been reached since October 2022.

Instead, ports handled 1.96 million TEU – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in August, which is the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 2.3% from July and was the busiest month this year so far but down 13.5% year-over-year. Ports have not yet reported September numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.3% year-over-year. October is also forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 3.1% year-over-year.

November is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, a 7.5% increase from the same time last year that would be the first year-over-year gain since June 2022. December is forecast at 1.88 million TEU, up 8.9% year-over-year.

Those numbers would bring 2023 to 22.1 million TEU, down 13.5% from last year. Imports during 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.

January 2024 is forecast the same as December at 1.88 million TEU, up 4.2% year-over-year, while February – historically the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia – is forecast at 1.74 million TEU, up 12.7% year-over-year.