March Retail Sales Grow As Consumers Look To Get Ahead Of Tariffs
Despite consumer concerns over the impact of tariffs on product pricing, data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows retail sales grew in March.
Overall sales in the year’s third month were up 1.4% seasonally adjusted month-over-month and up 4.6% unadjusted year-over-year. February retail sales were up 0.2% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year.
“Retail sales strengthened in March, supported by continued solid growth in income, lower energy costs, and bigger-than-usual tax refunds that all helped support household budgets,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the National Retail Federation. “However, there is no question that the consumer is not feeling great given the confusion of policy announcements from Washington. On-again, off-again rising tariffs and resulting turmoil in the stock market and world economy are clearly impacting consumer concerns about higher prices and future consumer spending growth.”
March’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants — were up 0.6% seasonally adjusted month-over-month and up 3.4% unadjusted year-over-year. Core sales were up 2.6% year over year on a three-month moving average.
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month-over-month in March and were up 5.07% unadjusted year-over-year. That compares with a decrease of 0.22% month-over-month and an increase of 4.11% year-over-year in February.
According to the NRF, the Census and Retail Monitor results reflect consumer spending that came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico in February but before he announced a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners on April 2 along with sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries.
The reciprocal tariffs were subsequently suspended for 90 days, but other tariff announcements have followed, and the situation remains fluid. A survey conducted for NRF in March found that 46% of consumers were stocking up on appliances, clothing, and other items as they were worried that tariffs would bring higher prices.
