Imports Slow Later Than Expected As 2023 Comes To A Close
Cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports will continue to slow in the final days of 2023, but the year’s peak came later than expected, according to a new report from the National Retail Federation.
Following the release of its monthly Global Port Tracker from the NRF and Hackett Associates, Jonathan Gold, vice president of Supply Chain and Customs for the NRF, noted that while an expected peak in imports was expected in August, the level of products coming in from overseas continue to grow in September and October.
“Whether it was merchandise for retailers or cargo for other businesses, that’s a good sign for the economy and for the holiday shopping season,” he said. “NRF expects record-setting holiday sales this year and retailers are well-stocked to meet consumer demand.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled a higher-than-expected 2.05 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in October, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 1.3% from September and up 2.5% from October 2022 for the first year-over-year increase since June 2022.
By topping September’s 2.03 million TEU, October should turn out to be the peak of the holiday shipping season. With 1.96 million TEU, August had originally been expected to be the peak month. The peak historically came in October but has occurred in August or sooner for seven of the past 10 years after a series of port labor disputes prompted retailers to bring merchandise into the country early to avoid potential disruptions near the holidays. The most recent year that shipping peaked in October was in 2020.
Ports have not yet reported November numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.96 million TEU, up 10.5% year-over-year. December is forecast at 1.93 million TEU, up 11.5% year-over-year.
Those numbers would bring 2023 to 22.4 million TEU, down 12.4% from last year. Imports during 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
Year-over-year volume growth each month is expected to continue in 2024, with January forecast at 1.93 million TEU, up 6.6% year-over-year. February – historically the slowest month because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia – is forecast at 1.77 million TEU, up 14.5% year-over-year. March is forecast at 1.75 million TEU, up 7.7% year-over-year, and April at 1.8 million TEU, up 1%.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
