Imports Remain Below Record Levels, But Growth Expected

Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to climb steadily through this summer but will remain below record-setting levels seen during most of the pandemic, according to the April Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“Last spring and summer were the busiest ever as consumers spent freely and retailers brought in merchandise to meet demand,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “This year won’t repeat that, but the numbers we’re expecting would have been considered normal before the pandemic. The priority at the moment is resolving labor negotiations at the West Coast ports and avoiding any self-inflicted supply chain challenges on top of those we’ve faced the past three years.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.55 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in February, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 14.4% from January and down 26.8% year over year. February is historically the slowest month of the year, but the number was the lowest since 1.53 million TEU in May 2020, when many factories in Asia and most U.S. stores were closed due to the pandemic.

Ports have not yet reported March numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.68 million TEU, down 28.2% year over year. April is forecast at 1.86 million TEU, down 18% from last year; May at 1.91 million TEU, down 20.1%; June at 1.99 million TEU, down 11.8%; July at 2.1 million TEU, down 3.9%, and August at 2.13 million TEU, down 5.9%.

“Compared with last year, the flow of import containers on the West Coast continues to decline along with demand as carriers increasingly drop service to Los Angeles-area ports but stretch voyages to include other ports of call to help absorb excess capacity,” said Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates founder. “Meanwhile, freight rates have been impacted by the fall in demand, but new ships are starting to show up and more have been ordered – a sign that carriers expect demand will improve by the time the new vessels are delivered.”

The concern on the horizon related to imports is the ongoing negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Association. The union’s contract expired July 1, but workers remain on the job. 

In March, the NRF sent a letter signed by 238 national, state and local trade associations to President Joe Biden encouraging further engagement by the administration in the West Coast talks. In addition, Matt Shay, NRF president and CEO met with Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka at NRF headquarters in Washington to hear the latest developments regarding the status of negotiations.