Import Volume Remains Strong Despite Recent Strike
Despite the strike that briefly shut down operations at ports from Maine to Texas, import levels at the nation’s major container ports are expected to continue at elevated levels throughout October, according to the Global Tracker Report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
According to the NRF report, October is forecast at 2.12 million TEU, up 3.1% year-over-year. That is slightly higher than the 2.08 million TEU forecast for October a month ago, and the strike did not appear to affect national totals.
“It was a huge relief for retailers, their customers, and the nation’s economy that the strike was short-lived,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy with the NRF. “It will take the affected ports a couple of weeks to recover, but we can rest assured that all ports across the country will be working hard to meet demand, and no impact on the holiday shopping season is expected.”
Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association went on strike at East and Gulf Coast container ports on October 1 after their contract with the U.S. Maritime Alliance expired. But the strike lasted only three days, ending after a tentative agreement was reached on a wage increase and a short-term contract extension until January 15.
In the months before the work stoppage, ports handled unusually large volumes of cargo beginning this spring as importers brought in goods early because of the potential for a strike and shifted many vessels to the West Coast, where dockworkers are represented by a different union.
“The surge in imports over the past few months has clearly been the result of contingency imports by wholesalers, retailers, and industrial companies in anticipation of the East and Gulf Coast port strike rather than a sudden increase in demand,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “We may see some short-term congestion on the West Coast but nothing significant, and East Coast delays should be limited.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.34 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in August, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have yet to report final data. That was up 0.9% from July and up 19.3% year-over-year for the highest volume since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022.
Ports have not yet reported September’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.29 million TEU, up 12.9% year-over-year. November is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, up 0.9% year-over-year; and December at 1.88 million TEU, up 0.2%. That would bring 2024 to 24.9 million TEU, up 12.1% from 2023.
January 2025 is forecast at 1.98 million TEU, up 0.8% year-over-year, and February 2025 is forecast at 1.74 million TEU, down 11.2% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories.
