Import Levels Continue To Slow

Monthly cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports has fallen below the 2 million TEU mark and is expected to remain beneath that threshold through the spring, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). 

In the monthly Global Port Tracker report from the NRF and Hackett Associates., U.S. ports covered in the report handled 1.78 million TEU in November, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 11.3% from October and down 15.8% from November 2021. It was the lowest total since 1.87 million TEU in February 2021, which had been the only month in more than two years to fall below 2 million TEU.

“Ports have been stretched to their limits and beyond but are getting a break as consumer demand moderates amid continued inflation and high interest rates,” said Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “Consumers are still spending and volumes remain high, but we’re not seeing the congestion at the docks and ships waiting to unload that were widespread this time a year ago. It’s good to escape some of the pressure, but it’s important to use this time to address supply chain challenges that still need to be resolved like finalizing the West Coast port labor contract.”

Ports have not yet reported December numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.88 million TEU, down 10.1% year over year. That would bring 2022 – which repeatedly broke monthly records in the first half of the year but saw significant drops in the second half – to an annual total of 25.7 million TEU, down 0.7% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.

January is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.5% year over year. February is forecast at 1.63 million TEU, the lowest since 1.61 million TEU in June 2020 and a 23% drop from last year, when backed-up cargo kept congested ports busy. March is forecast at 1.75 million TEU, down 25.5% year over year; April at 1.94 million, down 14.5%, and May at 2 million TEU, down 16.2%.

“After nearly three years of COVID-19’s impact on global trade and consumer demand, import patterns appear to be returning to what was normal prior to 2020,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Nonetheless, as inflation eases and consumer spending returns, we project that growth will slowly return going into the second half of the year.”