Deloitte Forecasts Slower Holiday Season Sales Growth

Retail holiday sales are expected to grow mid-single digits this year, an increase below last year’s strong double-digit growth, according to a new forecast by Deloitte.

The company’s retail and consumer products practice projects holiday sales will total $1.45 to $1.47 trillion during the November to January timeframe, an increase of between 4% and 6%. In 2021, holiday sales grew by 15.1% in the same period.

Deloitte also forecasts e-commerce sales will grow by 12.8% to 14.3%, year-over-year, during the 2022-2023 holiday season. This will likely result in e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $260 billion and $264 billion this season.

"The lower projected growth for the 2022 holiday season reflects the slowdown in the economy this year,” said Daniel Bachman, U.S. economic forecaster for Deloitte. “Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending.”

Bachman noted that inflation will help to raise dollar sales while retailers will see less growth in sales volume. 

Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader, added that as inflation weighs on consumer demand, there is an expectation that shoppers will shift how they spend their holiday budgets. 

"Retail sales are set to increase as a result of higher prices, and this dynamic has the potential to further drive e-commerce sales as consumers look for online deals to maximize their spending,” he said. “Retailers across channels who remain aligned with consumer demand and offer convenient and affordable options can be well positioned for success this season.